Lucky Pierre

With the White Sox apparently being 95% done in this offseason's free agent market, and having inked Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to deals, it looks as if the starting lineup for next year is, for the most part, locked into place.

Bill James has also released his projections for next year's season, so I just want to run this all together and see how things look, as they stand now, for next year. I'm posting relative stats next to each player, because face it, pal: it doesn't matter how many home runs Juan Pierre hits. It matters that he's a leadoff guy who doesn't walk nearly enough... that part is going to blow.

Anyway, here goes nothing:

Starters:

Catcher - A.J. Pierzynski - .323 OBP, 24 BB, 64 K, .283 avg, 149 hits. .742 OPS. 14 HR, 62 RBI.

First Base - Paul Konerko - .354 OBP, 67 BB, 96 K, .265 avg, 143 hits. .831 OPS. 29 HR, 90 RBI.

Second Base - Gordon Beckham - .360 OBP, 59 BB, 89 K, .288 avg, 166 hits. .837 OPS. 21 HR, 96 RBI. 44 doubles.

Shortstop - Alexei Ramirez - .339 OBP, 42 BB, 58 K, .285 avg, 150 hits. .770 OPS. 18 HR, 78 RBI.

Third Base - Mark Teahen - .336 OBP, 49 BB, 124 K, .270 avg, 144 hits. .758 OPS. 13 HR, 62 RBI. K% 23.3, Jesus Christ.

Left Field - Juan Pierre - .342 OBP, 25 BB, 27 K, .291 avg, 119 hits. 27 RBI. 30 SB. 56 runs scored, 27 RBI. Rarely strikes out, but also rarely walks. This is a problem.

Center Field - Alex Rios - .332 OBP, 41 BB, 102 K, .278 avg, 157 hits. .777 OPS. 16 HR, 73 RBI.

Right Field - Carlos Quentin - .356 OBP, 59 BB, 77 K, .271 avg, 147 hits. .867 OPS. 30 HR, 97 RBI. Will get hit by around 20 pitches, so it's more like 79 walks.

Designated Hitter - Andruw Jones - .336 OBP, 27 BB, .232 avg, 47 hits. .779 OPS. 11 HR, 34 RBI. 71 games played.

Bench:

Tyler Flowers - .353 OBP, 32 BB, .275 avg, 75 hits. .829 OPS. 12 HR, 32 RBI.
Mark Kotsay - .326 OBP, 17 BB, .268 avg. .704 OPS. 23 RBI.
Omar Vizquel - Old as fuck. White Sox answer to Lindsey Hunter. You want stats?
Jayson Nix - .307 OBP, 21 BB, .243 avg. .700 OPS. 27 RBI.

-=-=-

What of the lineup? This is one of the times where I wish we had Orlando Hudson. Because my lineup then would look like this:

1. Pierre
2. Hudson
3. Beckham
4. Quentin
5. Konerko
6. Rios
7. Pierzynski
8. Teahen
9. Ramirez

Instead, it looks something like this (off the top of my head):

1. Pierre
2. Beckham
3. Quentin
4. Konerko
5. Pierzynski
6. Rios
7. Teahen
8. Ramirez
9. Jones

Think about Hudson's projections popped in at the top end of our lineup:

.353 OBP, 59 BB, .280 avg. 154 hits, 59 RBI, and 33 doubles. 71 runs scored.

According to ESPN, the league average for runs scored last year was 781. Bill James projects that the White Sox (with their current roster) will score roughly in the area of 700 runs this season. This does not bode well for our Sox... not well at all. Hudson would be an ideal fit both for offensive and defensive purposes. He would also solve the DH problem in a roundabout way by shifting Beckham back to 3rd base, which would in turn bump Teahen into the outfield to replace Quentin. Voila! Supposedly, Kenny Williams has had a boner for Orlando Hudson for quite some time as well... and we're well below our salary of last year. Why not sign the O-Dog?

-=-=-

Another worrisome point of note: the oft-spoken of power shortage which people predict for next year should indeed come to fruition: the James numbers come out to reveal a home run output somewhere in the neighborhood of 165. That'd be 19 less than last year's 184. 165 homers would also put the Sox at #10 out of 14 American League ball clubs. I understand that Ozzie made do with the whole rotating DH / Podsednik garbage last year, and he really did an admirable job of it, but this club just lost fifty home runs from last year between releasing Jermaine Dye and trading away Jim Thome. Fifty. According to James' projections for next year, both Dye as well as Thome should hit around 30 home runs, each. How accurate this is with regard to either man's season is beyond me, but Bill James certainly knows his shit when it comes to baseball. What is troubling to me is that I read Ozzie claiming that he's going to stick to the rotating designated hitter thing, when there are two candidates who are well beyond viable to help the Sox out at the position... who happen to have just played for the team last year.

This obvious conclusion leaves me feeling just the slightest bit like Marty McFly...



If the Sox aren't in fact committed to "small ball" as they so often say (despite the fact that they've always been a slugging team in a slugging park and should always stay that way), and aren't going to sign Orlando Hudson up to play second base, I propose here and now that the Sox sign Jermaine Dye to a one-year deal... you're already $950,000 on the hook for the guy this year... and if not him, then sign Thome: he's a lefty threat and hasn't had an on-base percentage lower than .350 since 1992.

Spoiler alert: here's where I get way, way, way ahead and just start thinking like I'm on Fantasy Island...

So, after 2010 is over and we're all sick of life, the one-year contract on JD/Thome expires, and Konerko's contract goes away ($12M), and AJ's ($6.25M)...

All of this combined with the fact that the Sox are roughly $25 million beneath last year's payroll as it stands right now...

And the gaping hole at first base when Paulie's gone...

And the desperate need for power in a hitter's park...

?

I don't care if he's on cattle hormones. Fucker can rake.