Git Er Dunn

Trade Deadline Blues, FANTASY EDITION

Dan and I have been pretty much texting non-stop about possible trades in our Fantasy Baseball league. Here is one such exchange. (Dan=grey, Jarrett=green)

Bob in '11

My take on what the Cubs should do, re: picking a coach for the post-Lou era. (Via text to Dan Lowder)

Eyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

Has Interleague Play in Chicago Jumped the Proverbial Shark?

In a darkened corner of my suburban basement hangs a flag; a blue flag with a white L- 2' x 3'- an embroidered piece of memorabilia which replicates what is hung up on the scoreboard at Wrigley Field after a Cubs' loss. Used to be that I would actually fly the thing off of my deck at an old apartment that I lived in whenever the Sox would beat the Cubs. Or, in that 72-90 year we had there with Rob Mackowiak patrolling center field, it would just fly out of spite when the Cubs would lose, period.

It was bought out of sheer spite. Pure dislike. Fiery distaste, shall we say. And now, it hangs, unused, mostly unseen, impotent as a eunuch with a vasectomy. I don't fly the thing, and I don't really care enough to.

What happened? Where's the hate?

I've heard it said that the Sox winning the World Series took the venom out of the Red Line Series. Seeing as how I bought the flag after '05, that's immediately proven to be untrue in my case.

I'm going to get to my point: I think that this rivalry is in a downswing period due to the fact that both teams involved are playing crappy ball the past few years. And don't tell me that the Cubs making the playoffs and getting swept out twice signifies a quality team- you won't hear me defending the Sox team that went to the playoffs and crapped its pants against Tampa. Bad, bad baseball. Even if you want to argue with me, you can't claim that it's been good. It simply hasn't been the case.

And now, after a few years of this festering "rivalry" sluggishly flowing down the toilet bowl, through the pipes, and into the Chicago River (and then onto St. Louis), Major League Baseball decides it's a good idea to put an actual object of prestige on the line. The "BP Crosstown Cup". Prestigious. And yes, sponsored and named by that BP.

My first question is this: why wouldn't they name it the Harry Caray Memorial Cup? That would have made a lot more sense to me, being that Harry was a legendary announcer for both teams. Aside from that, he was a legendary Chicago figure. It would add to the "lore" of the cup and give it immediate "credibility".

Not as credible: a cup sponsored by an international goliath of corporate interest who currently is fucking the environment beyond repair, who also happens to have us all by our balls. Disagree with me on the "by the balls" comment? Then climb back in your sugar-fuel powered car and drive to Brazil, you fucking hippie.

So, in the end, Chicagoans are subjected to watching two very mediocre squads "duke it out" (feel free to substitute "take a shit all over the field" for that last phrase) over the course of multiple games to see who has the "honor" of holding onto an arbitrarily created trophy sponsored by a company who is currently trying to excuse itself for one of the greatest environmental fuck-ups in the history of mankind. Got it?

My counterpart here at Addison, JLB, sent me a message from the ballgame last night. You know, the one where there was not one, but two no-hitters taking place at once? I think his message says it all: "I spent an inning and a half stalking the bowels of Wrigley Field, looking for the stand that sells corn dogs. This should speak volumes about the level of excitement for the Crosstown Cup. Epilogue: I never found the corn dog stand. :("

I'm not sure if the two no-hitters speak more for the strong pitching performance, or the shitty batting performance. I think it's probably somewhere in between. Gavin Floyd and Ted Lilly are pretty good, but they're not that good.

Somewhere along the line, the appeal of interleague play has worn somewhat thin. I personally think that they should roll back the amount of games to the minimum amount possible. Baseball has bounced back from the strike, and the sport can stand by itself without gimmicks. Henry Winkler doesn't have to jump over the shark.

Another point: if you're going to make the stupid All-Star Game and its outcome actually mean something with relation to the World Series, you are an idiot. I'm looking at you, Bud Selig. If interleague play is a permanent fixture and should matter, then the interleague record, head to head, between the leagues should be the one which determines which league has home field advantage for the World Series. Personally, I thought that it worked when the team with the best record got to host the 4 home games, but that's just me.

You Can't Put Descartes Before the Horse

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CUBS! WOO! LOVE! WOO! HAPPINESS! WOO! IS A! WOO! WARM! WOO! GUN!

The fine major-market radio program I produce for broadcasted live from a bar in Wrigleyville today. Who should show up, clad in a silver Michael Jackson "Thriller" glove?

RONNIE WOO WOO.

We interviewed him for a few minutes. Hilarity ensued.

Click here to listen.

I Am Not Afraid of You and I Will Beat Your Ass

Summation of my feelings about Northside baseball this season in Chicago, IL, America: Woe. I didn't think woe was something you could still feel in 2010 A.S. (After Starlin) ; it's supposed to be reserved for Edgar Allen Poe or characters in a Dickens novel. And yet...woe.

Every time my soul is gorilla-pressed into the Empyrean by Marlon Byrd, it's yanked back into perdition by Aramis Ramirez. I keep looking up at the stars and down at the gutter and saying "eenie meenie miney moe."

So what else is new?

I've stared into the abyss. And staring back at me was Colby Rasmus Girl. Keep dancing. Enjoy your hill-person promenade.

Tribune: Jenks' Status as Closer Debatable

According to Tribune reporter Mark Gonzales, Bobby Jenks may be even more on the hot seat than I had previously speculated today...

The heir apparent would be one of the two set up men- either JJ Putz or Matt Thornton. I would prefer the latter.

Quick lines on this bizarre love triangle:

Jenks - 6.75 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, 2.29 K/BB, .352 opponent average

Putz - 4.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.33 K/BB, .238 opponent average

Thornton - 2.35 ERA, .72 WHIP, 8.33 K/BB, .154 opponent average

Clearly, if you can read numbers and understand how they work in basic relation to one another, you will see that there is no proper choice but Matt Thornton to be the next closer. Having said that, I eagerly anticipate Ozzie doing something wholly different.

Back to the Tribune article- the open poll asking people who they feel should be the Sox closer right now stands as follows: Thornton 45%, Sergio Santos 32%, JJ Putz 12%, and Jenks 11%. All that this proves is that 55% of Sox fans are morons, and that 32% of that group don't realize how hard Sergio Santos is going to get pissed on once the league really figures out that all he has is a fastball.

Fat Chance

Jenks Fails to Retire Anybody, Blows Save, Sox Lose to Canada 9-7


In case all one of you who read this thing haven't quite noticed, both myself and my North Side counterpart have been conspicuously absent from contributing to the site, despite the fact that a new season has taken off in full swing. This is not without cause; the plain and apparent truth is that, at this point, my team sucks.

I have pangs of guilt saying it, but at times I honestly question whether being a truly devoted fan to one team is honestly worth it. Unless that team is the Yankees, or in some years as of late the Red Sox, being a true baseball fan is for the most part a difficult and painful thing.

Take today, for example. I actually got in the car after playing in my own game (1-2 with a RIP of an RBI single over the shortstop's head, 1 walk, 1.000 in the field) and was feeling pretty good about life when I happened to turn on the radio. The Sox were on against the Blue Jays, and it was the bottom of the 8th, and insurance runs were being tallied for my team. Life was good... the sun was out...

Within fifteen minutes, that fat piece of crap Bobby Jenks had given up 4 runs total off of 4 hits, and recorded approximately 0 outs. And then Ozzie brings Scott Linebrink into the game- the pitcher in the bullpen who we are supposed to turn to in "give up the booty" scenarios when we're losing 12-1. That was quite enough for me. I turned off the radio... now that's closing.

We should have traded Jenks at least a year ago, and I fear that by now every Major League scout knows exactly what any Sox fan with a logical or slightly analytical mind has known for a while now; Bobby Jenks has lost it. Unfortunately, he was never peddled off onto any other franchise while he had decent value, so we're stuck holding the bag on this one.

Analysis time! Here's why Bobby Jenks is sucking shit/huffing dong/yanking wang/et al: (Follow my theory, and what I'm using as my evidence, here.)

Jenks' average fastball velocity is at the lowest point it has ever been- roughly 94.1 mph. That is fast as hell, yes, and even faster than average for a MLB pitcher (average being roughly 88-91 mph)... but when you stop and consider that when Jenks first came up, he was clocked at 102 mph, this is a worrisome statistic. To any normal human being, standing in on a 94.1 mph is something incomprehensible; you would just hear the seams cutting the air as it whizzed by you before you could react. It would probably knock a bat right out of your hands. Major League hitters, however, are not normal human beings- and a 94 mph fastball is slightly more demanding than routine to them. Furthermore, if it's not a particularly slick pitch and isn't darting all over the place with good movement, they're going to knock the shit out of the ball, plain and simple. This is Jenks' predicament; he's not blowing it by anyone anymore, and he's not fooling anyone with movement. He couldn't even strike out the cast of fucking Cocoon: The Return. And I don't care if they're mostly dead; my statement stands.



Yet Brimley lives on. Say it with me, phonetically: "dia-BEE-dez." Hey, speaking of Cocoon: The Return, do you know what debuted just about six months after it came out? That's right. Omar Vizquel.

I'll let you have a moment to absorb that fact. Watch the video again. See how old and shitty it looks? Does this remind you a little bit of watching Omar Vizquel play baseball in the year 2010? Yeah... me too.

Old men aside, what I noticed in Jenks' PitchFX numbers is that he is relying more heavily than ever on his straight change, by an amazingly large margin. From 2007-2009, Bobby Jenks threw roughly 28 changeups out of 2,168 pitches which he threw. This breaks down to somewhere around 1.3% of his pitches. So far, this year, Jenks has thrown the change 9.3% of the time. Why?

The changeup is a wonderful thing, a great pitch, especially to compliment the fastball. Ideally, a changeup should be roughly 10 mph slower than the speed at which a pitcher hurls a fastball. In Jenks' case, his change comes in at 9.7 mph slower than his fastball, on average. This is good. Bobby Jenks is spot on in this regard.

But there's another edge to Jenks and his change. The necessary element to a good changeup is that the fastball needs to get up on the batter more quickly than he can reasonably react to it. This comes either with overwhelming velocity of the pitch (for example, a 102 mph chuck) or some form of deception/hiding the ball well through the delivery. Jenks pitches from the stretch, so no crazy windup is happening. He's coming at the batter, straight up. No flourishes, no awkward timing, no keeping the ball screened by using his gigantic, gigantic fat ass... no nothing. Just... increasingly average stuff. Batters can afford to sit on his off speed pitches more often now.

If you haven't read between the lines, here is what I'm digging at: Bobby Jenks' fastball isn't getting up on anybody nowadays. It's not even moving all that much, so they can just foul it off all day and/or take the fastballs he doesn't get over the plate to get him into deeper counts. And when he gets down in counts, he's gotta come with the pitch that he can locate: the fastball. In the legendary words of Austin Powers character "Fat Bastard": "It's a vicious cycle."

Couple this collective problem with yet another problem for Jenks: he's shying away from his stellar (or at least it was at some point in the relatively near past) breaking stuff. He's throwing roughly 24% less sliders now than he did three years ago, and an alarming 41% less curveballs. Sandy Koufax may have been able to get by on two pitches; Bobby Jenks won't.

Major League hitters, sitting on changeups, and getting them? It's like hitting off of a tee. And when the Sox go up against teams who can actually hit, take for instance anybody who's not in the AL East or who isn't Seattle, Jenks is going to get positively hammered on. Value? Gone.

Jenks' recent history as far as injuries goes makes it quite possible that he might just be breaking down. Kerry Wood, he of the "broken down long ago" fame, had a theory that every pitcher had a limited amount of "bullets" in their arm. Once you hit your number, the arm was up. I don't think that's true for all pitchers, (take Jamie Moyer or Greg Maddux or any knuckleballer as examples) however in the case of most of your 100-mph threshold gunslinger types, I think that Wood may be right. I read somewhere that the force generated by your body to throw a fastball 100 mph is right at the line where, if it were much stronger, the joints and connective tissue would just blow out. If that's true, and Bobby Jenks has thrown fastballs 72% of the time since 2007, he's flirted with an exploding arm about 1700 times in the same span. And this figure doesn't incorporate the two years prior- 2005 and 2006- when Jenks was really bringing it.

Inherent risk aside, Don Cooper needs to figure out something, and quickly. Bobby may find himself having to do a reinvention of personality on the mound. He's simply not the pitcher he used to be.

Matt Thornton, come on down!

-=-=-

All congratulations to Dallas Braden, who took enough time out of his extremely busy schedule- which as of late has consisted of everything between bitching about Alex Rodriguez running across the mound the last time he threw against New York to bitching about Alex Rodriguez running across the mound the last time he threw against New York- to pitch a perfect game; the first since Buehrle. Strangely, it happened to the Tampa Bay Rays as well, who've been nothing short of red hot thus far on the season...

I get that Alex Rodriguez is a complete douchebag, I really do, and that he has two reported oil paintings of himself as a centaur and all of that business, but man- Dallas Braden, just shut up and throw. Oh wait, you kind of just... did. Either way, that's awesome.

Tea-bagged!

White Sox Lose Opening Series to Indians


First off, hello for the first time this year!

Secondly, it's far too early for me to get very concerned about what has just happened here. Grady Sizemore, his semi-nude self, and the hapless bottom-dwelling Cleveland Indians just swiped a home opening series from us in less-than-cordial fashion, and I'm a bit bamboozled by all of this.

What I do know is that I'm a bit miffed that Ozzie has slated Mark Kotsay as the #5 hitter against righties. Kotsay should never bat any sooner than 7th in any order, at any time, on any performance enhancing drug ever made, ever. End of discussion. I think he's a really good player for his value, and I feel that Kotsay can be an excellent contributor on defense and offensively as well- just perhaps in the 8 or 9 hole.

Outside of that, there's not much to report. Buehrle was unbelievable in his opening day start, and there's not too much to say about it besides that. Paul Konerko has also started off very well for us this year. He's a charter member of the "Little Lebowski Urban Achievers" club, and very proud we are of him! It's going to suck to see him playing for the Angels next year...

On a side note, I'll be attending the opener versus the Twins tonight, so that's exciting. It's just good to have baseball back and around again, so I'm not getting too bogged down by the negative aspects that I've witnessed. I'm still very optimistic about this club.

Talk to me in June.

Free at Last!

McGwire Finally Talks About the Past


So, your eyeballs weren't lying all that time: Mark McGwire has admitted that he indeed dosed himself with steroids throughout his playing career. In addition, a source close to McGwire also claims that the musclebound slugger took human growth hormone as well. Guess he wanted to touch all the bases! (ba-ching!) You can read Sports Illustrated's coverage of this release here.

I can't wait to see what Tony LaRussa has to say about all of this. First Jose Canseco came clean, now McGwire admits his cheating after years of brushing off the obvious truth. Where there's smoke, there's usually fire... Tony LaRussa seems to be constantly associated with performance enhancement. Be it Darryl Kile dying of a heart attack, or Rick Ankiel's conversion from pitcher who can't pitch to power hitter extraordinaire, or the exploits of the LaRussa-era Athletics... all of this makes me torn about Albert Pujols. He's an incredible player to watch, and he's an amazing batter, but my eyes tell me "more than human". Barry Bonds was an incredible batter before he ever touched "the cream" and "the clear". The use of PEDs only enhanced his greatness in the batters' box.

Some people say it doesn't matter much to the game that these guys are all doped up, but I have a hard time reconciling PEDs with baseball when these monsters ascend the record books and prop themselves up there with names like Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, and DiMaggio. With that said, I still want Albert Pujols at first base in a White Sox uniform come 2011. It's such a conflicting internal debate as a fan...

Other people will point to their eyes and say that Pujols' body hasn't changed since he's been in the majors. The response is easy: what if he was taking PEDs before he played a day in the majors?

On that note, I'd like to take this opportunity to tell the summer of 1998 to go and fuck itself. That is all.

So, who's next?

My Pre-season White Sox Predictions:

84 wins, 78 losses. There just isn't enough power to get the job done this year.

Hitters Who You'll Love:

1. Quentin
2. Beckham
3. Konerko

Hitters Who You'll Hate:

1. Juan Pierre
2. A.J. Pierzynski
3. Mark Teahen

Lucky Pierre

With the White Sox apparently being 95% done in this offseason's free agent market, and having inked Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to deals, it looks as if the starting lineup for next year is, for the most part, locked into place.

Bill James has also released his projections for next year's season, so I just want to run this all together and see how things look, as they stand now, for next year. I'm posting relative stats next to each player, because face it, pal: it doesn't matter how many home runs Juan Pierre hits. It matters that he's a leadoff guy who doesn't walk nearly enough... that part is going to blow.

Anyway, here goes nothing:

Starters:

Catcher - A.J. Pierzynski - .323 OBP, 24 BB, 64 K, .283 avg, 149 hits. .742 OPS. 14 HR, 62 RBI.

First Base - Paul Konerko - .354 OBP, 67 BB, 96 K, .265 avg, 143 hits. .831 OPS. 29 HR, 90 RBI.

Second Base - Gordon Beckham - .360 OBP, 59 BB, 89 K, .288 avg, 166 hits. .837 OPS. 21 HR, 96 RBI. 44 doubles.

Shortstop - Alexei Ramirez - .339 OBP, 42 BB, 58 K, .285 avg, 150 hits. .770 OPS. 18 HR, 78 RBI.

Third Base - Mark Teahen - .336 OBP, 49 BB, 124 K, .270 avg, 144 hits. .758 OPS. 13 HR, 62 RBI. K% 23.3, Jesus Christ.

Left Field - Juan Pierre - .342 OBP, 25 BB, 27 K, .291 avg, 119 hits. 27 RBI. 30 SB. 56 runs scored, 27 RBI. Rarely strikes out, but also rarely walks. This is a problem.

Center Field - Alex Rios - .332 OBP, 41 BB, 102 K, .278 avg, 157 hits. .777 OPS. 16 HR, 73 RBI.

Right Field - Carlos Quentin - .356 OBP, 59 BB, 77 K, .271 avg, 147 hits. .867 OPS. 30 HR, 97 RBI. Will get hit by around 20 pitches, so it's more like 79 walks.

Designated Hitter - Andruw Jones - .336 OBP, 27 BB, .232 avg, 47 hits. .779 OPS. 11 HR, 34 RBI. 71 games played.

Bench:

Tyler Flowers - .353 OBP, 32 BB, .275 avg, 75 hits. .829 OPS. 12 HR, 32 RBI.
Mark Kotsay - .326 OBP, 17 BB, .268 avg. .704 OPS. 23 RBI.
Omar Vizquel - Old as fuck. White Sox answer to Lindsey Hunter. You want stats?
Jayson Nix - .307 OBP, 21 BB, .243 avg. .700 OPS. 27 RBI.

-=-=-

What of the lineup? This is one of the times where I wish we had Orlando Hudson. Because my lineup then would look like this:

1. Pierre
2. Hudson
3. Beckham
4. Quentin
5. Konerko
6. Rios
7. Pierzynski
8. Teahen
9. Ramirez

Instead, it looks something like this (off the top of my head):

1. Pierre
2. Beckham
3. Quentin
4. Konerko
5. Pierzynski
6. Rios
7. Teahen
8. Ramirez
9. Jones

Think about Hudson's projections popped in at the top end of our lineup:

.353 OBP, 59 BB, .280 avg. 154 hits, 59 RBI, and 33 doubles. 71 runs scored.

According to ESPN, the league average for runs scored last year was 781. Bill James projects that the White Sox (with their current roster) will score roughly in the area of 700 runs this season. This does not bode well for our Sox... not well at all. Hudson would be an ideal fit both for offensive and defensive purposes. He would also solve the DH problem in a roundabout way by shifting Beckham back to 3rd base, which would in turn bump Teahen into the outfield to replace Quentin. Voila! Supposedly, Kenny Williams has had a boner for Orlando Hudson for quite some time as well... and we're well below our salary of last year. Why not sign the O-Dog?

-=-=-

Another worrisome point of note: the oft-spoken of power shortage which people predict for next year should indeed come to fruition: the James numbers come out to reveal a home run output somewhere in the neighborhood of 165. That'd be 19 less than last year's 184. 165 homers would also put the Sox at #10 out of 14 American League ball clubs. I understand that Ozzie made do with the whole rotating DH / Podsednik garbage last year, and he really did an admirable job of it, but this club just lost fifty home runs from last year between releasing Jermaine Dye and trading away Jim Thome. Fifty. According to James' projections for next year, both Dye as well as Thome should hit around 30 home runs, each. How accurate this is with regard to either man's season is beyond me, but Bill James certainly knows his shit when it comes to baseball. What is troubling to me is that I read Ozzie claiming that he's going to stick to the rotating designated hitter thing, when there are two candidates who are well beyond viable to help the Sox out at the position... who happen to have just played for the team last year.

This obvious conclusion leaves me feeling just the slightest bit like Marty McFly...



If the Sox aren't in fact committed to "small ball" as they so often say (despite the fact that they've always been a slugging team in a slugging park and should always stay that way), and aren't going to sign Orlando Hudson up to play second base, I propose here and now that the Sox sign Jermaine Dye to a one-year deal... you're already $950,000 on the hook for the guy this year... and if not him, then sign Thome: he's a lefty threat and hasn't had an on-base percentage lower than .350 since 1992.

Spoiler alert: here's where I get way, way, way ahead and just start thinking like I'm on Fantasy Island...

So, after 2010 is over and we're all sick of life, the one-year contract on JD/Thome expires, and Konerko's contract goes away ($12M), and AJ's ($6.25M)...

All of this combined with the fact that the Sox are roughly $25 million beneath last year's payroll as it stands right now...

And the gaping hole at first base when Paulie's gone...

And the desperate need for power in a hitter's park...

?

I don't care if he's on cattle hormones. Fucker can rake.